New weather watch for south-eastern seaboard.

Thursday 12th September 2019

From west to east,

All eyes on Disturbance Thirty Seven currently lounging around over the southern Bahamas, largely kept in check by upper level wind shear. For the past 48 hours, a small group of mainly European modellers have stuck resolutely to a track along the eastern seaboard, while the rest of us have predicted a track across the Florida peninsula and an early landfall in the north west Gulf of Mexico. Weakening of upper level shear overnight has had two influences on the modelling community. One is that the Europeans are sticking to their track but have increased intensity to hurricane force, and the other is that the rest of us are drifting slowly towards the idea that the European guys may have had this right all along. For now, let's just say that the consensus is a landfall in south-eastern Florida on Saturday followed by a track north into south-eastern Georgia early next week. This is changing hourly as forecasts nudge this east. The threat to the Gulf of Mexico has decreased of course, and as wind shear decreases, the likelihood of this developing into a tropical storm are improving. I'd have hurricane response plans ready to be on the safe side.

Disturbance Thirty Six is now centred around 18 hours east of the Lesser Antilles moving a tad north of west at 8 knots. This is still weakening and fully expected to dissipate over the eastern Caribbean.

Disturbance Thirty Eight is now three days west of the African coast moving west at 12 knots. Despite adverse conditions, this has retained rotation and a defined radiating squall pattern, so we do know that convection is taking place. By Monday or early Tuesday, this will likely be on final approach for the Lesser Antilles where conditions becoming more favourable for development early next week.

Weather watch on the Florida coast otherwise stand easy.