HUMBERTO gathering steam over Bahamas

Saturday 14th September 2019

A new low mid level pressure system with potential for development has piped up in the central Gulf of Mexico with an expected track towards the general direction of the southern coast of Texas. Conditions could become favourable for some tropical development over the next few days. At worst could form a weak tropical storm. Regardless of development, the disturbance will bring a threat of heavy rainfall to Texas next week.

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO is currently centred about 200 miles east-sou'east of Freeport, Bahamas with maximum winds of 35 knots. HUMBERTO is likely to track towards the north and northwest over the next few days, followed by a turn towards the east and northeast next week. No significant impacts are anticipated in the United States but cannot be ruled out for Bermuda. This has a negligible hurricane severity index rating at the moment but has an expected maximum of 20 out of a possible 50 points (9 for size and 11 for intensity) with a fairly small radius indicating a potentially small but aggressive little bruiser. Fish storm at best but a weather watch may be needed for Bermuda later.

Disturbance Thirty Nine is now 400 miles north of the mouth of the Amazon moving west at around 8 knots. This will continue to track west towards the Lesser Antilles where conditions are becoming favourable over the next few days, and a tropical storm could form early next week.

Disturbance Thirty Eight is about two days east of Disturbance Thirty Nine and is moving towards the west at a brisk 22 knots. Rapid ground speed has weakened this system and significantly reduced development chances.

Weather watch for offshore eastern seaboard and possibly Bermuda later.