HUMBERTO eyeing track towards Bermuda
Sunday 15th September 2019
Disturbance Forty is inching west in the central Gulf of Mexico centred around 200 miles a touch west of due south of the mouth of the Mississippi. This is still only a mid to upper-level low pressure cell with little surface identity but conditions could become favourable for some tropical development over the next few days before it moves inland into Texas on Tuesday. If development does occur, it is unlikely to form much more than a weak tropical storm but prolonged sea time will make this a significant rainmaker.
Tropical Storm HUMBERTO is currently located 140 miles north of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, moving north at little more than walking pace. Current winds are gusting 70 knots in places over a 90 mile radius. This has a current hurricane severity index rating of 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 for size and 3 for intensity). This storm is still expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the next 24 hours with a predicted hurricane severity index rating of 17 (7 for size and 10 for intensity). A slow track towards the north-nor'west is expected today followed by a acceleration and a turn to the east-nor'east to pass near Bermuda early on Thursday with winds in excess of 100 knots. This still has a way to go yet and this may change but storm preparations for Bermuda may be prudent. The eastern seaboard seems to have dodged a bullet this time.
Disturbance Thirty Nine is about a day east of the northernmost Windward Islands moving west at 9 knots. A track more towards the northwest is expected over the next few days which may just clear the islands while conditions for development improve. Tropical storm development cannot be discounted which may mean another bite at the Bahamas in the offing.
Disturbance Thirty Eight is centred around 700 miles north east of the mouth of the Amazon headed west at a brisk 22 knots. This speed will weaken convection as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles and tropical development is not expected.
Storm plans ready for Bermuda otherwise stand easy.