HUMBERTO set to peak at category three close to Bermuda

Monday 16th September 2019

Disturbance Forty is located over the north-western Gulf of Mexico, centred around 180 miles south-sou'east of Galveston. This still hasn't broken out much from its general formation as a mid to upper-level low pressure area. Conditions look to be becoming more favourable for tropical development over the next 24 hours, but time will be short before this it moves ashore into Texas tomorrow. As we discussed yesterday, if this does develop, it is unlikely to progress much beyond a kitten-weak tropical storm but in any event, will constitute a threat of heavy rainfall along the coast of Texas, starting quite soon.

Hurricane HUMBERTO is now is located about 700 miles west-sou'west of Bermuda moving to the northeast at a leisurely 5 knots. Maximum winds are around 90 knots although one marine observer has reported a 100 knot gust. There are a couple of twists and turns ahead but the general consensus would seem to be very close to Bermuda as a category three Hurricane on Thursday. This currently has a hurricane severity index rating of 9 out of a possible 50 points (3 for size and 6 for intensity) and a peak of 20 (8 for size and 12 for intensity) as this reaches closest point of approach with Bermuda with a tropical storm wind field radius of 115 miles. Whilst the eastern seaboard has dodged a bullet, significant impact is possible for Bermuda but far from certain as things stand. This slow ground speed is worrying as this allows time to pick up moisture and intensify.

Disturbance Thirty Eight is now in the north-eastern Caribbean dashing west at 25 knots, a speed which will weaken this system as it crosses the BVI and US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Aside from brief heavy shower and thunderstorm activity, this won't be up to much despite an Armageddon prediction from the Blind Sniper.

Disturbance Thirty Nine is now centred around 1,150 miles east-sou'east of Barbados moving a tad north of west at 12 knots. This is expected to turn to the north-west in a couple of days and may, hopefully, curve away from the Caribbean altogether and pass well clear of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and if we are lucky, head seaward. On the down side, this is becoming better organised and conditions ahead are ripe for convection with warm water aplenty. I'd have this down as our next tropical storm by Wednesday or Thursday if the disturbance in the Gulf doesn't deliver.

Disturbance Forty One has formed 200 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west-nor'west. It is early to say for certain but environmental conditions ahead are become unfavourable and may cause this to dissipate well to the east of the Caribbean.

Stand by for hurricane conditions in Bermuda and heavy rainfall in Texas.