JERRY temporarily weakening
Saturday 21st September 2019
From west to east,
Disturbance Thirty Eight is now crossing the Windward Passage between Haiti and Cuba drifting slowly west. By Monday, this is expected to be in the southern Gulf of Mexico where conditions for development are unfavourable.
JERRY has weakened to a tropical storm, currently 250 miles north of Puerto Rico and headed west-nor'west at 15 knots. This currently has a hurricane severity index rating of 5 (2 for size and 3 for intensity) with maximum winds of 70 knots over a tropical storm strength windfield radius of 80 miles. This will have an uncertain path for a few days but the general consensus seems to be for a track towards Bermuda around Tuesday or Wednesday and a revival of hurricane strength intensity. Not the best news but not set in stone.
Disturbance Forty One is about a day and a half sailing east of the Windward Islands moving west at 13 knots. Surface rotation has picked up and conditions favourable for development over the next couple of days. This will cross the islands of the western Caribbean over the weekend with heavy rain and thunderstorms, but thereafter upper level wind shear will begin to cause significant weakening.
Disturbance Forty Two is a couple of days west of the Cape Verde Islands westbound at 18 knots. This is fairly weak and without significant prospect.
Disturbance Forty Three is about to emerge off the west coast of Africa. Conditions are expected to be favourable for development as it tracks west across the convergence zone. Early days.
Weather watch on JERRY otherwise stand easy.