JERRY expected to blow a hoolie passing Bermuda

Monday 23rd September 2019

Tropical Storm JERRY is now around 330 miles south-sou'west of Bermuda moving north-nor ‘west at 6 knots. Observed wind speeds are steady at around 60 knots. Wind shear is still suppressing full scale development to below hurricane strength although a slight increase in intensity may be possible. As things stand JERRY is likely to be blowing a hoolie when it passes west of Bermuda late tomorrow, with some fairly strong winds ashore, but not a patch on DORIAN. After passing Bermuda, JERRY is expected to accelerate harmlessly out to sea to the northeast while gradually transitioning into an extratropical storm.

Marginal weak Tropical Storm KAREN is centred 70 miles west of Barbados tracking north at 6 knots with winds down to around 35 knots. The centre is quite disorganised and losing much of its essential formation. This is expected to regroup a little as it tracks north over the next few days taking the system near eastern Puerto Rico with a possible landfall on Tuesday, with heavy rain and strong squalls. Thereafter, conditions are expected to be more favourable for development as it heads north. Predictions thereafter are mixed, ranging from a turn seaward or a westerly track back towards the Bahamas. As this is slow moving, this is highly speculative at this time.

Disturbance Forty Two is around midway between the Caribbean and the African coast headed due west at a leisurely 8 knots. This is still weak and has doubtful prospects for survival.

Disturbance Forty Three is located about 300 miles south-sou' east of the Cape Verde Islands headed west at 13 knots. This deepened overnight and has become Tropical Depression Thirteen. Conditions ahead are favourable for further development, but a turn to the north-west is expected which would take this out into the central Atlantic as a fish storm.

Stand by for strong winds ashore as JERRY passes Bermuda.