KAREN bound for Puerto Rico JERRY to brush Bermuda LORENZO headed seaward.

Tuesday 24th September 2019

Disturbance Thirty Eight has been reached the Gulf of Mexico, 25-30 miles north of the Yucatan Peninsula, creeping west with a few showers and the odd thunderstorm. Conditions could become marginally favourable for development later this week as it tracks towards the west-nor ‘west but will probably make a quiet landfall before it can fully develop. Irrespective of development, this will bring some heavy rain across southern Texas and north-eastern Mexico by the end of the week.

KAREN weakened to a tropical depression due to northerly wind shear, but has now slipped clear and regained tropical storm intensity. Now 95 miles south of Puerto Rico headed north at 10 knots, the nominal centre has nudged slightly east overnight and will pass close to eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this evening with heavy rainfall, strong winds and perhaps some significant storm surge. Thereafter, a northerly track will continue towards the end of the week and until KAREN interacts with a forming ridge of high pressure. At this time, KAREN will have two choices. East, seaward or west, towards Florida. Jury out, but consensus is swinging towards the west, unfortunately.

Tropical storm JERRY is now centred 260 miles south-west of Bermuda headed north-nor'west at 6 knots. Upper level shear is having a bite at the convection column which is beginning to weaken. A cold front pushing east from the eastern seaboard will produce south-westerly winds and also contribute to the shear affect. Nonetheless, this will pass close north of Bermuda tomorrow as a weak tropical storm with some potential gusts ashore, but far from the intensity of DORIAN and the remaining avocado crop should stand a chance of survival.

Useless Disturbance Forty Two is now centred around 850 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon moving west at 13 knots. The system continues to be disorganised, and conditions ahead are not at all favourable for development.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is located about 250 miles south-sou'west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west-nor'west at 14 knots. This is currently producing winds of over 60 knots and the glass is still falling, with the smart money on this becoming a strong hurricane, but only likely to bother fish and sailors.

Stand by for tropical storm conditions across eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight, north of Bermuda tomorrow and some miserable days and nights at sea in the eastern tropical Atlantic. 

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