Fish storm LORENZO strengthening in eastern Atlantic

Wednesday 25th September 2019 From west to east,

Disturbance Thirty Eight is drifting west near the north-western coast of the Yucatan peninsula, currently producing disorganised shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions could becom marginally more favourable for development later this week as it tracks towards the west-nor'west but may have limited sea time to develop into anything meaningful. Regardless of development, this will bring heavy rain to south Texas and north-eastern Mexico this coming weekend. JERRY is now 165 miles west-sou'west of Bermuda headed north-east at around 5 knots. The advancing cold front has won the day, stripping the system of most of its energy. This is almost devoid of thunderstorm activity, indicative of failure of the convection column. This still has some strong gusts associated with it but unlikely to offer much more than strong breezes to Bermuda as it passes north of the island overnight tonight headed harmlessly seaward.

Tropical storm KAREN passed through the Virgin Passage between Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands overnight, with the windfield clipping the north-east of Puerto Rico. This brought tropical storm force winds across both islands and particularly heavy flooding to parts of Puerto Rico, with up to 10 inches in places. Now 160 miles north-east of san Juan, KAREN is headed north-nor' east at 12 knots, producing winds of between 40 and 55 knots. This is at peak intensity now with a hurricane severity index rating of just 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) however, the long range forecast remains uncertain. KAREN is forecast to move towards the north-east over the next few days, but thereafter steering currents are expected to disappear which will cause the storm to meander aimlessly around the subtropical western Atlantic for a day or so before ultimately heading west. It is impossible to predict track or intensity at this stage although of course the usual catastrophist has a different view.

Disturbance Forty Two won't give up. Now 650 miles north-nor'west of the mouth of the Amazon moving west at 12 knots. There really isn't much left of this and is fully expected to be off radar soon.

Newly upgraded Hurricane LORENZO would be the catastrophist's sweetheart if not destined to be a fish storm. Now centred around 650 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west-nor'west at 16 knots. Conditions are favourable for. this to strengthen significantly over the next few days as it tracks towards the northwest, but with no likely impact on land.

Fish and sailors should stand by for mucky weather from LORENZO in the eastern Atlantic.