LORENZO brushes Azores, now headed for Ireland
Wednesday 2nd October 2019
Disturbance Forty Four is centred around 120 miles south-east of the Yucatan channel, edging slowly north-west. This is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow or early Friday, then turn west across the top of the bay of Campeche towards the Mexican coast . There is some upper level shear across the southern Gulf which should prevent tropical development.
Disturbance Forty Five has formed around 400 miles south of Bermuda, headed north-east at 9 knots. This is kitten-weak and no threat to anyone.
Hurricane LORENZO passed near Flores in the Azores overnight with some hurricane force gusts ashore, and is now accelerating towards the north-east at 35 knots. Aerial imagery shows LORENZO weakening, partly due to ground speed and partly due to transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. Over the next day or so, the system should continue to move north-east ahead of a large trough over the north Atlantic. Most observers have this reaching the west coast of Ireland and the north-west United Kingdom with some fairly strong winds and heavy rainfall late on Thursday. There are still some nonsensical tracks being proposed, but this very much depends on intensity, which will weaken in inverse proportion to acceleration.
More filthy days at sea in the northern Atlantic, LORENZO having already cost the lives of 11 seafarers when anchor handler BOURBON RHODE sank on Sunday