Busy skies but no sign of development.

Monday 7th October 2019

Forgettable Disturbance Forty Four is now centred around 130 miles north of Coatzacoalcos in the Bay of Campeche drifting south at 5 knots. This looks set to move into southern Mexico overnight tonight with some heavy showers and thunderstorm activity but without any meaningful development.

Eyes are on an upper level low interacting with the tail of an occluded front in the general area of the Bahamas over the coming days. As often happens in such circumstances, this will spawn a low pressure cell which should hatch off the coast of the Carolinas by Wednesday. Steering currents are ill defined at the moment and likely to cause this system to lounge about for a few days before moving to the north-east and harmlessly seaward.

Disturbance Forty Seven is westbound at 15 knots, expected to cross the Lesser Antilles in around 12 hours bringing enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity, but without development.

Disturbance Forty Five is now over 1,000 miles east-sou'east of Bermuda in a state of some seagoing confusion. This is a weak system being buffeted about by a swirl of light steering currents at present, however an approaching front is likely to have the casting vote and cause this to develop into a defined low pressure cell. This is then expected to turn back and head west to north-west directly into upper level shear which will prevent development.

Disturbance Forty Seven is now about two days west of the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west-nor ‘west at 12 knots. No development is expected.

Stand easy.

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