Weather watch over disorganised Atlantic pressure pattern

Tuesday 8th October 2019

Disturbance Forty Four has moved ashore into southern Mexico, unnoticed, unremarkable and unlamented.

More excited chatter and some thigh rubbing, mainly by the Canadian guy, over a new disturbance expected to form in the southwestern Caribbean next weekend, which will coincide with a pulse of rising air over warm water and may present a tropical storm risk. In my view, if this were to develop, it would be fairly short-lived and likely find itself ashore in central America fairly quickly. Far too early to say anything more with any confidence.

Newbie Disturbance Forty Eight has piped up as a trough of low pressure over southern Florida which will move northeast and develop into a weak low pressure cell somewhere north of the Bahamas tonight and probably be absorbed by Disturbance Forty Nine.

The upper level low which we spotted mixing it with an occluded front yesterday has, as anticipated, left an new low in its wake, Disturbance Forty Nine is an elongated trough of low pressure centred loosely around 300 miles southeast of Charleston. This will continue moving north to northwest and may freshen off the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow. This is then expected to meander around 300 miles off Cape Hatteras for a few days during which time it might provide some windy days and nights offshore, perhaps even making storm strength before heading harmlessly seaward over the following weekend.

Disturbance Forty Seven crossed the Lesser Antilles overnight but without significant impact aside from some localised heavy shows and the odd thunderstorm. This is now westbound at 15 knots across the southern Caribbean, weakening as it does so.

Disturbance Forty Five is now 1,200 miles east of Bermuda, strengthening slightly as it starts retracing its steps to the west. This does have some circulation and convection possibilities, and may briefly become a fish storm, but is likely to weaken and disappear into Disturbance Forty Nine by the end of the week.

Disturbance Forty Six is now three days north of west of the Cape Verde Islands and continuing to plod along to the west-nor'west at 12 knots with little sign or prospect of development.

The Atlantic pressure chart looks like a donkey's breakfast today, and one or two areas will need a weather watch but for today at least, stand easy.