MELISSA heading harmlessly seaward

Sunday 13th October 2019

Disturbance Fifty One has formed in the southwestern Caribbean as anticipated and will track towards the west-nor'west over the next few days. This should reach the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday where conditions are marginally favourable for development. Regardless of outcome, at the very least this will produce heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity across Central America on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm MELISSA is now 430 miles east-sou'east of Nantucket headed a touch north of due east at 10 knots. This has achieved all it is going to do, and is now under attack from upper level wind shear which should continue to weaken it.

Disturbance Fifty is now centred around 600 miles north-east of the mouth of the Amazon moving towards the west at 18 knots. This has some rotation associated with it and is expected to produce heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles later this week. Conditions are likely to become marginally more favourable for development over the next few days and a weather watch will be needed.

Disturbance Fifty Two has piped up off the west coast of Africa. This has a twinkle in its eye and favourable development conditions ahead which may produce a tropical depression or storm as it passes close to the Cape Verde Islands tomorrow.

More uncomfortable days at sea in the north west Atlantic otherwise stand easy.