Gulf of Mexico development chatter on the wires
Tuesday 15th October 2019
From west to east,
Disturbance Fifty One is now offshore Belize tracking towards the north-west and expected to reach the Bay of Campeche tomorrow. This is subject to much chatter on the wires. Conditions are forecast to become more favourable for development later in the week as it turns north across the Gulf of Mexico. One or two commentators are suggesting a tropical depression or weak tropical storm forming as it approaches the Louisiana coast on Saturday. Regardless of development, this will be a rainmaker for the northern Gulf coast by the weekend.
Disturbance Fifty is centred around a day and a half east of the Lesser Antilles, westbound at 14 knots. Conditions for development will deteriorate as this approaches the Caribbean and long term survival is unlikely.
The remnants of MELISSA have been absorbed into a frontal boundary and disappeared into North Atlantic murky anonymity.
Disturbance Fifty Two stepped up a gear and is now designated Tropical Depression Fifteen and may yet teach tropical storm strength. This is now around 200 miles east of the Cape Verde Islands and is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the islands later today but having peaked early, is then expected to dissipate within a few days.
Bit of mucky weather for the Cape Verde Islands otherwise stand easy.