Letís hear it for upper level wind shear.

Thursday 17th October 2019

From west to east,

Disturbance Fifty One is now centred 150 miles east of Tampico, moving north into the Gulf of Mexico at 7 knots. Wind shear prevents this from developing into a strong tropical storm or hurricane however it will develop. This will track slowly north-nor'east today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast overnight when upgrade to tropical storm is most likely as it crosses the Louisiana deepwater leases. At this time, upper level shear will come to the rescue driving most squalls and significant wind patterns to the east of the centre and generally breaking the convection column. Landfall is predicted to occur over the Florida panhandle on Saturday morning.

Disturbance Fifty is just about to cross the Lesser Antilles headed west-nor'west at 8 knots. Conditions are unfavourable for development as moves into the eastern Caribbean due to upper level shear. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across the islands and eastern Caribbean but is not expected to develop.

The remnants of Fifteen are located several hundred miles to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. This will weaken and dissipate over the next couple of days over the eastern Atlantic.

Stand by for strong winds and gusty squalls across the offshore lease areas otherwise stand easy.