Weak tropical storm expected Gulf of Mexico
Friday 18th October 2019
From west to east,
Disturbance Fifty One is now centred 350 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi headed north-east at 20 knots, set to pass through the offshore leases with the occasional tropical storm force gust. This has a current hurricane severity index rating of just 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity). Though environmental conditions are favourable for the system to become a named storm, westerly upper level wind shear is too strong for any meaningful intensification. This will develop but not much beyond a weak tropical storm with an HSI of 3 (1 for size and 2 for intensity) with 45 knot winds over a 120 mile radius when it makes landfall over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday. Upper level shear is displacing the worst excesses to the east thus strongest winds and highest tidal surge are expected over the coast of Apalachee Bay.
Disturbance Fifty is in the eastern Caribbean now centred around 200 miles west-nor'west of Barbados northwest at 10 knots into increasingly unfavourable development prospects. This isn't going far.
Disturbance Fifty Three has piped up three days west of the Cape Verde Islands headed west at 16 knots. This is little more than an open trough and unlikely develop but may bring showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles early next week.
The remnants of Fifteen are centred 350 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands and continuing to weaken. This will dissipate over the next couple of days over the eastern Atlantic.
Stand by for weak tropical storm conditions offshore Gulf of Mexico and towards the Florida panhandle.