Disturbance One showing signs of early storm formation

Friday 15th May 2020

Disturbance One is currently radiating line squalls across the southern end of the Florida peninsula and will bring heavy downpours and strong winds across the Bahamas soon, if not already doing so. This continues to take shape with aerial imagery now showing signs of circulation. Currently centred over the Florida Straits and moving north-east at just 8 knots, this will cross the northern Bahamas tomorrow, then head harmlessly seaward, passing well clear of the eastern seaboard and far enough north not to bother the good people of Bermuda. Warm water and no appreciable wind shear should give this a bump up to tropical storm force, but only after it has passed the Bahamas.

For those who must, this is expected to have a peak hurricane severity index rating of 7 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 3 intensity) with a tropical storm windfield radius of 200 miles and a maximum wind speed of 25 to 35 knots. The outer edge of this windfield may brush the coastal Carolinas but unlikely to have a significant impact.

Stand by for strong winds and heavy rain across the Bahamas.