Long-term speculation shifting towards a development off Bermuda.

Considering the nominal start date for the Atlantic tropical storm season is June 1st, and we already have ARTHUR banked, two potential disturbances show an usually busy end to the month of May.

I was quietly congratulating myself on sensing a formation in the south-west Caribbean a full 48 hours before any of the agencies spotted it, to find the overnight data showing a weakening of its prospects, reaffirming my decision not to have pursued a career in meteorology. If anything forms, it is now more likely to be on the other side of the fence in the eastern Pacific, which is off our Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico radar. Any impact on our side is likely to be from a fairly weak low pressure trough forming later next week.

Where the professionals are starting to chatter is a large area to the south of Bermuda where a low pressure tail of an eastbound front and upper level steering currents from two small fronts crossing the eastern seaboard may create a disturbance towards the middle of next week.

All speculative of course. While there is still an active feed of late spring fronts crossing the south eastern seaboard of the United States, forecasting is even more hit and miss than ever. My own general rule of thumb when I was watching weather through bridge windows in regions dominated by frontal activity, was 24 hours maximum for a sensible forecast, 48 hours with a pinch of salt and anything over 72 hours, nonsense. My second rule was ‘expect to be proved wrong'.

For this weekend, more blue skies and calm seas.

Stand easy. 

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