Busy skies ahead for Gulf of Mexico
Monday 1st June 2020
Disturbance Three merged with an eastbound front some 250 miles south east of Bermuda and is off our radar now.
As anticipated, the trough which straddled central America for a couple of days produced a fairly intensive, but fortunately brief low pressure development which spawned tropical storm AMANDA in the Pacific. This storm ran aground in Guatemala last night and has dissipated. On our side of the fence, the trough has produced Disturbance Four over the Yucatan peninsula which is nudging north towards the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions are fairly fertile for development, although it is expected to track into southern Mexico fairly quickly.
This melee of pressure gradients is also looking to produce another low pressure cell likely to spin off behind Disturbance Four and pass through the Yucatan Channel into the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Given the unpredictability caused by swirling upper level air, this is highly speculative however a track towards the coasts of Texas and Louisiana can't be ignored.