CRISTOBAL first landfall in Mexico. Louisiana in line for second.

Wednesday 3rd June 2020

True to expectation, Disturbance Three was formally upgraded to Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL shortly after we posted yesterday's report. This had a brief period of sea time before partially grounding near Campeche in the last hour. As often occurs with storms dawdling close to land, CRISTOBAL has formed a highly efficient siphon process, the sector over water pulling moisture into the vertical column and the sector over land promptly dropping it. Widespread catastrophic flood damage with up to 20 inches or rain is expected over Yucatan and southern Mexico over the next 24 hours.

By tomorrow afternoon, the centre should be pushed back to sea. Steering currents are shaping up to take CRISTOBAL east then north towards the Louisiana coast, strengthening as it does so Weak shear and warm water will provide fuel for vertical convection, but a decent ground speed is expected, which should maintain some disorganisation and keep development in check. Nonetheless, a strong and fairly large tropical storm may be expected as CRISTOBAL crosses the offshore leases and heads for the middle Louisiana coast on Sunday.

Stand by for continued tropical storm conditions across southern Mexico, and weather watch needed for the offshore leases and the coast of Louisiana over the weekend.