New disturbance over Bay of Campeche not expected to develop

Tuesday 23rd June 2020

Disturbance Twelve, racing across the south-west Caribbean, lost all shape overnight and is off radar.

Disturbance Fourteen is now seaborne over the southern Bay of Campeche. This is showing no sign of determined organisation and is not expected to develop as it tracks north-west across the western Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Nonetheless, this will being some rain, heavy in places towards the mouth of the Rio Grande and surrounding area over the next two to three days.

Disturbance Thirteen hit the warm water of the Gulf Stream overnight and fuelled up for intensification, making subtropical Depression Four. Currently 400 miles south-sou'east of Nantucket and headed harmlessly seaward with sustained winds of around 35 knots, this may reach subtropical storm strength over the next few hours, but will weaken again fairly quickly without bothering anyone ashore.

Possible short-lived fish storm in the far north-west Atlantic, otherwise stand easy.