Remnants of BARBARA in southern Bay of Campeche
From west to east
Having said yesterday with misguided confidence that tropical storms 'rarely if ever jump the fence into the Gulf of Mexico', BARBARA made a very good shot at it. My salvation has been that after making landfall as a hurricane, the effect of crossing the uplands of central Mexico displaced the wind field and created its own internal upper level wind shear. This breaks down essential vertical air circulation and the remants of BARBARA are likely to loaf around in the southern Bay of Campeche and slowly dissipate over the next 18 hours. There are likely to be some spirited line squalls across the southern Bay of Campeche but this is not likely to reorganise and have any bearing on the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Disturbance Two is now a large and fairly persistent area of unsettled weather in the north west Caribbean currently centred loosely to the south east of the Yucatan peninsular. This area is likely to drift to the north-west or north and be enhanced by moisture from the remnants of BARBARA but equally, displaced by the upper level shear. We should expect this to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend as a broad band of low pressure and, in the wake of BARBARA, has a slim chance of forming a tropical depression and bringing unsettled weather to the central Gulf of Mexico.
Last weekend we discussed a patch of thunderstorms forming over the area around Havana and moving towards Florida and the Bahamas, and this has now become a little more organised and is designated Disturbance Three. This is now producing a large area of showers and storms around the Bahamas which is expected to spread slowly north or north west bringing enhanced showers and thunderstorms over Florida tomorrow however no tropical cyclone development is expected from this disturbance.