Remnants of BARBARA and Disturbance Two merge without development

What little remains of hurricane BARBARA has now merged with Disturbance Two in the far south of the Bay of Campeche in the form of a broad area of disorganised showers and some line squalls, but with no significant surface circulation. The hurricane's fragmented windfield is still producing some good upper level wind shear which will prevent any development for the next 24 to 48 hours. Thereafter, it is possible that this low pressure area could develop over the warm fertile waters of the Gulf of Mexico and one or two of the more eager modellers are discussing cyclone development in the central Gulf of Mexico next week. That is rather unlikely, however any development that does occur will by then be further to the east, between the Mississippi and the Florida peninsular and will be eastbound.

Typically for May and June the transatlantic production line is quiet and there is as yet little sign of any activity across the sub-Sahara region. where seasonal low pressure cells begin their trek to the west.

Stand easy