Disturbance Two at rest in Bay of Campeche

On paper, today is the first day of the hurricane season, which normally opens with all eyes on local development in the southern Gulf of Mexico, south eastern seaboard of the United States and the north-east Caribbean. The trans-Atlantic production line usually takes a few weeks to get a head of steam up.

Typically then, our season begins with a local development in the Bay of Campeche. We have been watching Disturbance Two for the past few days as it finally absorbed the last of BARBARA. This area of low pressure is now loafing around aimlessly in the southern Bay of Campeche, where it is producing line squalls and moderate localised wind conditions of up to 35 knots in places, but without any viable surface circulation. This is likely to continue for the next couple of days before getting underway in earnest towards the north-east, when it will open out into a wide band of low pressure and deepen slowly, thereafter headed east Florida and into the Atlantic.

Some of the more excitable forecasters are already issuing updates on development however their concern may be premature. Whilst BARBARA is done and dusted, there are still some upper level winds which are preventing vertical circulation and as a result, the system will not develop until it is into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico towards the middle of next week. Should the system mature into a tropical depression or even a minor tropical storm by that time, it is likely that this will be nearer Florida than Texas. However this system develops, at the very minimum, it is will create a path of squalls in its path. These will bring heavy rain and perhaps flooding as it crosses the Florida peninsular.

Stand easy.