Disturbance Two still disorganised and yet to move east

From west to east.

All eyes remain on disturbance two which is still at rest, loosely centred in the extreme south west of the Bay of Campeche. It is still expected that once the suppressing upper level shear disperses, this broadening low pressure cell will creep across the southern Gulf of Mexico towards south western Florida around Wednesdsay or Thursday of the coming week. Aerial images of this disturbance show a significant lack of interest in surface organisation, thus reducing the chances of this acheiving any meaningful development, as things stand at present. Nonetheless, the system is spreading thunderstorms and squalls - with 45 knot winds in places - over a rather large area and if this continues, is likely to cause heavy rainfall and some flooding as it crosses the southern half of the Florida peninsilar.

A new disturbance - dedignated number four - has appeared about two days steaming to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. This is little move than a wave of low pressure at the moment and does not show much in the way of ambitious development but will be worth watching as it tracks west at 10 knots.

Stand easy