Disturbance Two moving slowly east but lacking organisation

Disturbance Two has shifted slightly to the east and is now centred just to the north east of the Yucatan peninsular. Late frontal activity from the north is continuing to disrupt any vertical of surface organistion, so this remains just a wide band of low pressure extending from the far southern Bay of Campeche to the Florida Straits. Some more enthusiastic forecasters are excited at the prospect of this developing into a tropical storm as it approaches the coast of Florida, but without a well-defined low level centre, this still seems less than certain – and the consensus seems to be evenly split. Irrespective of tropical development, squalls, with up to 45 knot winds in places, are likely across much of the south eastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico as the cell moves to the north-east. The only certainty at present is heavy rainfall and some flooding across south-central Florida and the focus of this is currently to the south of Tampa.

Disturbance Four is still pushing west at around 10 knots – currently centered around 600 miles north east of the Amazon delta. Satellite imagery shows little if any surface organisation. Development is not expected over the next few days as it moves to the west or west-nor'west.

Stand easy