Disturbance Two showing surface circulation

Outlook for 1400Z 4th June 2013

Disturbance Two has become slightly better defined during the past 24 hours and has started moving nor'north-east at 5 knots. Weak low-level circulation is estimated near about 120 miles northwest of Cancun, Mexico however showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the east of the centre, indicating strong westerly shear. Modellers are now slightly more positive about this developing into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before reaching the west coast of Florida late on Thursday or early Friday.

As discussed previously, irrespective of development, all eyes are on rainfall and an estimated 10 inches of rain is anticipated over the next few days across portions of the Florida peninsular.

Disturbance Four has done little more to develop on its westward track, which is not unexpected this early in the season and in the last few hours, appears to have started to drift north of the convergence zone which may indicate an early bath.

Stand easy