No activity of immediate interest but some medium range speculation

General outlook 1400z 10th June 2013

Disturbance Five has gone aground in the region of the Orinoco River and won't be back.

A new disturbance - designated Disturbance Six - has formed around two days steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands. This low pressure cell is westbound at 15 knots but headed into upper level shear, so unlikely to organise or survive the crossing.

At this time of year, it is possible to find excited modellers seeking the next disturbance and it is rare in early June to find a consensus, however there seems to be a growing view over the last 24 hour that a strong disturbance developing into a tropical depression could form in the north-western Caribbean/Yucatan Channel area in seven to ten days. The tendency for this would be to move west into the south-western Gulf of Mexico under the influence of a developing ridge of high pressure over north-eastern Texas. Highly speculative of course, but we will keep a weather watch.

Stand easy 

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