No significant development in the short term

General outlook 1400z 11th June 2013

Fragments of disturbance five are milling around the Netherlands Antilles,- however this low pressure cell lost what little energy it had when it first went aground yesterday. This will disappear overnight leaving just occasional showers, moderate winds and cloudy skies.

Disturbance six is centred around 700m north-nor'east of the Amazon basin and has no viable surface circulation. Upper level shear will prevent any vertical interest. As with disturbance five this system will probably make an uneventful landfall along the northern coast of South America over the next day or two and dissipate.

A regular observer reminded me that my comment on an expected development somewhere in the north west Caribbean/Yucatan channel in 7 to 10 days time yesterday, is at odds with my customary seafaring cynicism concerning any forecast over three days ahead at this time of the season. I still maintain that a forecast of more than three days is nonsense. What is significant here, is the number of modellers who are throwing their lot in with this forecast, which has increased. There is some justification in this. A high pressure cell is likely to be in place over Texas and Louisiana by then and there is an inbound Pacific pressure pulse. Moist air. Warm water. We'll see.

But it's a model, not a forecast.

Stand easy 

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