A model beginning to become a forecast - albeit early

General outlook 1400z 14th June 2013

Disturbance six lost energy when it grounded yesterday, having developed some impressive thunderstoms in the last hours of its Atlantic crossing but undeterred, has pressed on. This is now an open wave centred around a day's steaming east of Curacao as it skirts the coast of Venezuela at around 15 knots and is now starting to look interesting. The Netherlands Antilles Islands are already experiencing some showers, the odd burst of brisk wind and occasional thunderstorms which will increase over the next day or two. Aerial imagery shows that this is starting to hint at a track slightly to the north of west, which will cause the system to diverge from the coast. If this trend continues, then disturbance six could be headed into the north west Caribbean and - with a token nod to the modellers who have been predicting development early next week ih this area - the Yucatan channel. We will watch this, but it does already seem as if, on this occasion anyway, the model may indeed become a forecast. Do remember that the modellers have already decided that a tropical depression or storm is to be expected in the south western Bay of Campeche early next week with a landfall 'somewhere south of Brownsville'.

A new disturbance designated seven developed over the Bahamas in the last six hours. This is already headed harmlessly to the east-nor'est at 5 knots and is a fairly pathetic system thus unlikely to be of interest beyond the next 24 hours.

Stand easy 

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