Disturbance six the only show in town, and not yet developing

General outlook 1400z 15th June 2013   

Disturbance six has now started to turn towards the north west and is presently centred, very looosely speaking, about 100 miles north of Aruba and moving at around 12 knots. It is almost inevitable now that this will reach the Yucatan peninsular, but today's aerial footage does not show any surface organisation of any interest. Whether this is the widely modelled disturbance/storm expected in the south west Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week remains to be seen. In my view this has a fairly good chance of going ashore in Belize and dissipating altogether, but let's not second guess the modellers who are still looking at this being the catalyst for some development this coming Wednesday in the Bay of Campeche. Whatever the outcome, this will be a rainmaker over eastern central America in the coming days.

The new disturbance we discussed over the Bahamas yesterday - designated seven - headed harmlessly to sea as expected. Poor effort.

Stand easy