Disturbance six showing surface organisation

By mid-June last year, we'd had two named storms in ALBERTO and BERYL, which both became rainmakers along the eastern seaboard, and eleven identified and tagged disturbances. These had either lost interest mid-Atlantic and drifted north from the convergence zone, or made a spirited attempt to make an assault on the Caribbean, only to lose energy due to dry Sahara air, which became a feature of the 2012 season. With that in mind, it is not hard to see why modellers are watching disturbance six with a glint in their eyes. The Gulf of Mexico is warm and fertile for fuelling anything which has vertical organisation, there is little upper level shear and there is some meaty moist air in the region. This is all positive for the committed storm enthusiast. Disrturbance six is the current favourite of a number of them as it heads north-west towards Yucatan at 15 knots and shows some surface organisation. This could become a depression in the north western Caribbean over the next 12-24 hours and, provided it survives a now inevitable landfall in central America and reappears in the Bay of Campeche, may strengthen into a strong depression or tropical storm before moving inland into Mexico by Wednesday. Regardless of development, there will be locally heavy rainfall from Central America, to the Yucatan, to northeastern Mexico over the next few days.

There are some low pressure cells over sub-Saharan Africa shaping up for a trans-Atlantic crossing but otherwise, no other prospects for development today.

Stand easy.