Tropical Depression Two ashore but may develop in Bay of Campeche later

General outloook at 1700z 17th June 2013

Disturbance 6 was upgraded to a tropical depression (TD2/13) as the centre went ashore in Belize, headed west-nor'west at just 10 knots. Currently centred around 150 miles south east of Belize City. This may briefly drift back into the north west Caribbean but is likely now to follow a track across into southern Mexico. If this does enter the Bay of Campeche, conditions are favourable for further development and some are considering a tropical storm, however this is only headed back into Mexico and the oil leases of Texas and Louisiana are unlikely to be effected. Forecasters are around evenly split as to whether or not the system will move into the Bay of Campeche however, those I usually consider to be more reliable see the system remaining ashore. Having said that, in the last few minutes, one fairly eminent American modeller has decided this will enter the Bay of Campeche - as does a Canadian modeller who regular readers will recall sometimes gleefully defaults to gloom. No matter how gleefully this system is viewed, there appears to be little chance of the system intensifying into a hurricane. In the Bay of Campeche, squalls are beginning to appear and by tomorrow, sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots are likely with gusts to 40 knots. In the strongest squalls, winds may briefly gust as high as 55 knots. This is a rainmaker, and 3-6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches are possible within 100 miles of the path of this disturbance over portions of Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and southern Mexico. Lesser amounts will occur over northern Nicaragua over the next 24 hours.

In the far eastern Atlantic, a low pressure cell has slipped its moorings over the African mainland and is shaping up for an Atlantic crossing. It is rather early in the season for this type of system to mature so far to the east, but worth watching

Stand easy. 

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