Tropical disturbance Two likely to develop in Bay of Campeche

Tropical disturbance two is now midway across the Yucatan peninsular in central Belize, moving north west at 5 knots. This has depleted as it passed over higher ground and winds are now little more than 15 knots, however the forward track of this now seems certain to enter the Bay of Campeche. High pressure over the northern Gulf will keep this seaborne reappearance well to the south and is likely to land again somewhere beaten Veracruz and Tuxpan around 36 hours after entering the Bay of Campeche. During this time, the system will make the most of fertile warm water and undisturbed upper air and gain some vertical convection and surface organisation and strengthen to a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm with bracing 50 to 60 knot winds, but no impact on the northern Gulf. The main feature of this will be heavy rain up to 10 inches in places and with landslides and flooding likely in south eastern Mexico. A moderate tidal surge of up to two feet is predicted.

The low pressure cell we spotted off the African coast is still visible from satellite imagery but not being commented on by professional observers as yet. Not even from Canada.

Stand easy. 

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