Disturbance ten nearing Caribbean but no immediate development

General picture at 1500Z 24th June 2013

Tropical disturbance nine is now ashore in Guyana and has probably had its day. This may reappear briefly as it approaches Panama in three to four days, but conditions there are not encouraging for development.

Tropical disturbance ten is now centred about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west-nor'west at 20knots. This is a little fast for a low pressure system to become properly organised and unless this reduces speed to a more gentle Dead Slow Ahead, is likely to do little more than bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the eastern Caribbean region.

The new system we reported yesterday seems to be stalled between the Cape Verde Islands and the African coast with no sign of development. Indeed, some of the prevailing wind patterns discernible from satellite imagery could be pulling dry Saharan air into the convergence zone, which was a significant cause of fledgling storm mortality last season.

Stand easy.