Two disturbances in the Caribbean but no development expected

General picture at 1400Z 25th June 2013

There is a belt of upper level shear extending from the Yucatan peninsula to the north of Puerto Rico which will protect the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Tropical disturbance nine has reappeared from its South American run ashore and is now centred just north of Lake Maracaibo and has opened up into a fairly useless wave which will not develop as it treks west.

Tropical disturbance ten is now just approaching the Windward Islands and moving to the west-nor'west. Development is not expected over the next few days as it continues across the Caribbean bringing little more than enhanced showers and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles tomorrow, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots with slightly higher gusts to the north side when it passes through the Leeward Islands. One or two modellers have this developing just before it makes a landfall in central America in about four days time, at which point it will be appropriate to say with due modesty, that we picked this up six days before anyone else. Both disturbances are making a good 20 knots, a speed which normally puts paid to any chance of development.

The disturbance we picked up in the far eastern Atlantic last Friday seems to be struggling to maintain a profile, perhaps reinforcing the argument that there may be a belt of dry Saharan air in the area.

Stand easy.