Some scope for development appearing in NW Caribbean

General situation 1400Z 26th June 2013

Tropical disturbance nine is grounding in Panama in the next few hours, bringing enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity. Game over.

Tropical disturbance ten is now 280 miles past the Lesser Antilles and westbound at 15 knots. This is a reduction on yesterday's speed, and may allow for some development. At present, the wind shear we reported yesterday across the central Caribbean will keep this in check. Once it reaches the western Caribbean in 3-4 days however, conditions will become a little more favourable. Several reliable American and European modellers are indicating a disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean or Bay of Campeche that could emanate from this and strengthen into a depression which will in all likelihood follow BARRY ashore into southern Mexico. One solitary modeller – whom regular readers may recognise - has taken a different view, and has this bound for the central to northeast Gulf Coast (mid Louisiana coast to the Florida Panhandle) and developing into a tropical storm. There is little objective evidence to support this today, but we should recognise with caution, that even the most eccentric modeller may one day steal the show.

The disturbance we first commented on a week ago today has now achieved official recognition as tropical disturbance twelve, and is under way on a westerly course at 12 knots.

Stand easy.