Increasing chances of a threat in the Bay of Campeche next week

General situation 1300Z 27th June 2013

Tropical disturbance ten now extends from north of the Dominican Republic south to Venezuela. Though thunderstorm activity remains disorganised today, an increase in thunderstorm activity is expected when it reaches the western Caribbean in a couple of days time. By early next week, it seems increasingly likely that the disturbance will make the southern Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico where there will be a chance of tropical development. If it does develop, most reliable commentators believe it will become a depression or a tropical storm prior to moving inland into Mexico well south of the Texas border - following BARRY - and unlikely to impact on the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical disturbance twelve is mid-Atlantic now and causing considerable thunderstorm activity as it moves west at 15 knots. Conditions in its path are not favourable for development to reaching the eastern Caribbean and the main impact across the islands of the eastern Caribbean will be heavy rainfall and gusty winds in squalls by Sunday.

Stand easy.