Disturbance ten bound for Bay of Campeche but development seems unlikely

General outlook for 1400Z 30th June 2013

Tropical disturbance ten is located close to the south west coast of Cuba and is tracking towards the north west, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the north western Caribbean, through the Yucatan Channel and into the Bay of Campeche. This system has not really produced any deep and meaningful vertical convection, thus the chances of this developing into an organised tropical cyclone as it moves into the Bay of Campeche have become slim. This will in all likelihood, move into Mexico later this week without further development. The lone Canadian modeller who had decided that this was going to produce a named storm and make for the Misissippi is showing an 'out-of-office' message today.

Tropical disturbance twelve in the east-central Caribbean is losing a battle with a belt of strong upper level shear which currently stretches from Costa Rica to Colombia. In addition, a surface speed of 20 knots is too fast to allow much convection anyway, so this is not going to produce anything of note, other than localised showers and thunderstorms.

There is an unreported low pressure system about a day's sailing to the west of the Cape Verde Islands, however today's satellite imagery is showing unimpressive cloud development.

A second large low pressure cell is set to leave the African coast in the next day or two. This also looks to be fighting dry Saharan air which will inhibit development.

Stand easy. 

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