Confused airflows aloft preventing cyclonic development

General outlook for 1400Z 1st July 2013

We set ourselves what we thought was a simple brief with these bulletins. We report on evolution and development of low pressure cells likely to develop into organised cyclones, principally in the Gulf of Mexico but not produce a general weather forecast. The situation in the Gulf of Mexico however, is a little confused this week but relevant to non-cyclone development. An occluded front is more or less tracing the coast from Corpus Christi to the Florida panhandle and a second belt of upper level activity stretches from Panama to the Florida Straits. This is creating a bit of a donkey's breakfast aloft, and there will be confused thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and occasional bands of wind gusts in a fairly chaotic pattern across the region. Looking at our overall brief, this mucky pattern will prevent any vertical or even surface organisation for the forthcoming days.

Disturbances ten and twelve are close to converging in the area of the Yucatan channel and will themselves bring increased thunderstorms to the Gulf of Mexico later this week, with squalls, some strong winds and lumpy seas. Flooding may be possible along the coast of Texas and across the Mexican border. Disturbance ten will enter the Bay of Campeche late tomorrow and then beach in southern Mexico later in the week. There is still a slim chance of this developing into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche before moving into Mexico but upper level activity is going to prevent anything too exciting.

Tropical Disturbance twelve is racing pointlessly towards the Yucatan channel and will move into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, It is not likely to develop but will add to the generally foul weather across the region before being absorbed into the confused frontal activity.

The two unreported systems in the eastern Atlantic are still moving slowly into the convergence zone but not developing with any confidence.

Stand easy.