An upper level ménage à trois inhibiting development over US Gulf

General outlook for 1400Z 2nd July 2013

The upper level ménage à trois we described yesterday over the Gulf of Mexico looks to continue for several days. A combination of disturbances ten and twelve and an occluded front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will make for a filthy week ahead, but one that will prevent any decent cyclonic development. The entire northern Gulf will experience showers and thunderstorms, heavier towards the east, across most of the Gulf and south into the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical disturbance ten is ashore, bouncing across the Yucatan peninsula, losing energy as it does so, and will enter the Bay of Campeche in the next 12 hours where it is likely to loaf around aimlessly for a few days. This now looks as if it could push a little further to the north before grounding, perhaps as far north as Brownsville. There is a slim chance that this may retain some organisation but unlikely to upgrade much beyond a tropical depression at some point over the next five days.

Tropical disturbance twelve has opened to a wave and extend from the southern coast of Cuba to south of Jamaica and is headed north-west at 15 knots and will eventually merge with disturbance ten and the upper level trough.

Eagle-eyed professional observers have recognised a new disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. It's the one we first reported ten days ago. Satellite imagery still shows a pattern that could be pulling dry air into the convergence zone so development is not expected at present.

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