Some stabilisation aloft and a suspected circulating system approaching the Caribbean from the east

General situation at 1700Z 7th July 2013

The overall situation of competing upper level pressure systems over the Gulf of Mexico has stabilised a little in the past 24 hours, and two disturbances have left our screens. Earlier today, disturbance ten beached along the coast of Texas as a depleted open wave. Nonetheless, this will continue to have an impact, with Louisiana and coastal Texas seeing heavy rainfall over the next 36 hours possibly up to five inches in isolated places.

To the east, disturbance twelve finally disappered into an upper level trough as it grounded over the Florida panhandle.

The surprise visitor, disturbance fourteen, which developed in such an unusual manner and briefly aroused some of the more ardent forcasters, is now about one day's steaming east of the Florida straits, westbound at 10 knots. This is still expected to make a dramatic alteration of course to starboard once it transits the straits, to move into the western Florida panhandle or north-central Gulf Coast next weekend. Development is not expected.

Despite some easing of upper level shear, disturbance thirteen, now midway across the Caribbean and heaed west at a determined 10 knots, is still being deprived of a chance to develop by winds aloft.

Disturbance fifteen - about 1,200 miles to the east of Barbados is the modellers' centrefold today. Initially, I couldn't see it. Travelling at a cyclone-shredding 25 knots and displacement of thunderstorms indicating that there is upper level shear ahead, this however in the last couple of hours, this was almost certainly disappointment. Against the run of play, satellite wind data released in the last hour would suggest that this system has developed closed surface circulation, often an indication of intent. Irrespective of development, this will bring heavy rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday.

Two further low pressure systems to the east as yet unreported, one about a day to the west of the Cape Verde Islands and a second, just getting up a head of steam and letting slip the African coast.

Stand easy