No development expected but not dissimilar comparison with 2012 statistics

General overview 1500z 16th July 2013

From a statistical viewpoint only, at this point last year disturbance twenty five was on radar, today we are at twenty. June 29th saw the last of tropical storm DEBBY - which, to the disappointment of some movie buffs amongst our readership, did not give me a potentially career-threatening but irresistible reason to refer to activity around Dallas - and there was a lull on tropical storms until ERNESTO appeared on 3rd August.

Today, three fairly innocuous disturbances are on radar with just a hint of a meaty low pressure cell leaving the African coast.

Disturbance eighteen is centred around 50 miles south of the Mississippi delta moving west-nor'west at 20 knots. The disturbance continues to weaken as it interacts with an upper low in the Gulf itself and no development is expected but will produce generally unsettled conditions for the next 24 hours.

Disturbance seventeen is curving away from the islands of the north-east Caribbean at a passion-killing 20 knots thus development is not expected.

Disturbance twenty is now around 900 miles north of the Amazon delta and is moving west-nor'west, also at an unnecessarily excessive 20 knots. Conditions along its path remain unfavorable for development for the next five days.

Stand easy.
 

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