Busy region but no development expected
General picture 1600z 17th July 2013
Disturbance twenty one is hovering around the coast close to the Texas/Mexico border and likely to be ashore by the time I hit the send button. That's is for twenty one.
Disturbance twenty two is an upper-level disturbance, stationary off the coast of south Florida. This is likely to make its way to the north west over the next few days. This is not expected to develop. Plenty of thunderstorm activity is however expected along its track stretching from the Bahamas to eastern Texas. This is yet another feature to bring considerable amounts of rain to Florida this season, or as we sometimes call this in the UK, ‘summer'. Not this week, though. Nice and dry here
Disturbance seventeen is a weakening disturbance, passing harmlessly east of the Bahamas and dissipating as it does so.
Disturbance twenty has opened out into a large and weakening tropical wave, around one day east of the Leeward Islands and pushing on west at over 20 knots. There are some showers and scattered thunderstorms associated with it, but conditions along its path and its ground speed will prevent development.
The chunky looking low pressure cell we reported yesterday, has been tagged disturbance twenty three and is just passing the Cape Verde Islands at 17knots. It still looks half-decent on satellite imagery, but conditions along its path are not favourable for development.