No development over the reporting region, but two long term prospects in the nursery
General picture 20th July 2013 1600z
Disturbance twenty two has landed in Louisiana and is currently centred a little to the north of Lake Charles. This is off my radar now as it will not develop into an organised system. It will however continue to bring scattered showwrs, heavy in places across a coastal belt from the Mississippi to west of Houston for a couple more days. This will continue to bring showers and storms to parts of southern Louisiana and southeast Texas during the next couple of days.
Disturbance twenty three has drifted well to the north of the fertile convergence zone. This still has weak bands of thunderstorms and rain squalls associated with it, but these lack any organisation and development is not expected.
We keep a weather eye on the low pressure production line across sub-Saharan Africa at this time of the season, as this often gives us early warning of infant systems which may make an impact when they slip the surly bonds of earth and embark on the customary Atlantic trek. Two chunky cells look more promising than usual - one over central Nigeria and a second to the west and slightly to the north, over central Mali. Clearly, this is a long way from the oilfields of the northern Gulf of Mexico but the shape and size of these warrants scrutiny. Certainly a number of modellers are already becoming hot under the collar about these two systems. We maintain a weather watch.