DORIAN making headway and an early prediction on track
General picture 25th July 2013 1500z
Disturbance twenty three dissipated and is no longer of interest.
A new disturbance - twenty four - has piped up in the sub-tropical Atlantic, almost outside our area of interest, currently a couple of hundred miles north of Bermuda. This is a spin off of interaction between a weak surface trough and some upper level lows. This is over cold water and will in all probability wither on the vine and be gone by tomorrow.
All eyes on tropical storm DORIAN of course. Currently centred around 1680 m east Guadeloupe and headed north-west at 15 knots with observed wind speeds of between 55 and 65 knots. The current hurricane severity index is just 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size / 3 intensity) and predicted to peak at 6 (2 size / 4 intensity) which is not particularly dramatic but I suspect will be reviewed upwards in due course. Whilst we still do not consider a reliable forecast track to be hard and fast yet, there would seem to be a consensus between forecasters that DORIAN will pass to the north of the Caribbean early next week and then, in about 5 days, to track north of the Bahamas in the general direction of the Turks and Caicos Islands. On such a path, DORIAN would not reach the Gulf of Mexico. This is slightly north of the convergence zone and there is cool water ahead as well as dry air and upper level winds shear however, today's images show some pretty impressive circulation so one cannot rule out further intensification. Give this image, it is possible that DORIAN could reach hurricane strength in the next week.
A sizeable low pressure cell appears to be leaving the African coast. I'm sure the professionals will pick this up in the next few days.