A single weakening system mid-ocean and some collective guesswork

General overview 1600z 5th August 2013

Disturbance twenty nine is almost unrecognisable from satellite imagery now, just wisps of cloud circulating a fairly flat centre. This has crept further north from the intertropical convergence zone, away from moist air and warm waters, further reducing its chances of generating anything remotely interesting. This is now mid-Atlantic and moving west at around 15 knots but development is most unlikely.

The modellers are still huddled over their crystal balls and talking up a new disturbance developing in the north-east Gulf of Mexico over the next five days, as we discussed yesterday. Despite, there being no visible system, they are generally in agreement that this will develop and track to the west towards Texas. They also seem to be agreeing that whatever does develop will be weak with only increased rainfall and scattered thunderstorms, but no mention of strong winds.

Stand easy.