One single disturbance with partial surface organisation

General overview 1800z 8th August 2013

Disturbance twenty nine has merged with a frontal boundary and is now off our radar.

There is just one disturbance in the reporting region today. The centre of disturbance thirty is just passing across the island of Curacao in the Netherlands Antilles, headed west at 12 knots and is likely to maintain this track, perhaps slightly to the north if anything. Surface organisation has improved over the past 24 hours and some rotation is clearly visible from satellite imagery. Having said that, the rotating wind field is displaced to the south of the system's nominal axis, indicating upper level shear from frontal activity to the north which is expected to continue and will inhibit development. Only one commentator is talking this up to a tropical system, and that is one who frequently takes the route of maximum negativity.

Stand easy