Speculative development later this week

General overview 2000z 10th August 2013

Modellers have been discussing tropical development in the northwest Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico for the latter part of this coming week. I've been rather puzzled by this as it has been difficult to pinpoint the source of the projected development and I have a seafarers's natural mistrust of modellers anyway. It now appears clear that a rather weak upper level disturbance currently located in the eastern Caribbean is the source for this speculation. For the sake of continuity this has been tagged disturbance thirty three, which has been causing scattered thunderstorms across the eastern Caribbean this afternoon. The smart money is on this moving to the west-nor'west at 10 knots for the next few days and reaching the north west Caribbean near the Yucatan peninsular by Thursday. Once there, upper level conditions may be favourable for development. This is the modellers' pin-up for today but holds no guarantee of development. Should development occur, then the system could begin causing increasing squalls and rough seas across the deepwater areas of the northwest Gulf of Mexico east of Texas and south of Louisiana by Friday evening or Saturday morning. We will see. Please remember this is a model, not a forecast.

Elsewhere, disturbance thity one in the western Gulf of Mexico is now ashore in Mexico. Game over.

Disturbance thirty two has emerged from the murk over the Cape Verde Islands but is hitting dry air and development is not expected in the short term.

Stand easy.