Fresh burst of energy in 2013 season

General overview 1700z 12th August 2013

Disturbance thirty three is the toast of the town today, showing some real determination to develop and aerial images now show early signs of a surface pattern appearing. Currently centred around 150 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and headed west-nor'west at 15 knots, this system is starting to shape up for the Yucatan Channel ETA sometime on Thursday morning. Once in the southern Gulf, the effect of pressure systems are expected to push the track towards the north-nor'east and then curve in the general direction of the Alabama coast/Florida panhandle. The chance of development is increasing, however there is residual upper level shear and a strangely unseasonal cool column of sea water in the north-east Gulf which may yet spoil the party. This will not be a large and powerful storm. Two highly respected and reliable modellers, the US and EU models are talking development down (although the EU model has this turning into the Bay of Campeche. I can't see that). On the other hand, the US Navy and our friend in Canada are fairly convinced that this is ERIN. If this does perform then squalls associated with the system could reach the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coasts as early as Friday morning. The weather across the northern Gulf in advance of the system will be good for possible evacuations through Thursday.

Disturbance thirty two is now in mid-Atlantic moving at 15 knots. This is still battling against a dramatic sweep of Saharan air which has blighted the entire intertropical convergence zone for the first part of the season and is unlikely to survive. Having said that, changes are taking place across the entire region - fairly rapidly in meteorological terms. High pressure systems are giving way to lows. Moist and rising air systems are moving in and sand is dissipating. The 2013 season is set to increase to flank speed and hoist battle pennants. Cells leaving the African coast over the next two weeks will be armed and spoiling for a fight.

Stand easy