Two for the price of one in the Gulf of Mexico

General overview 1200z 16th August 2013

Disturbance thirty three is seaborne again and has calved. One would assume that these would interact with one another and result in mutual destruction. Not so. Splinter one is headed due north, more or less lining up with the Mississippi where it is expected to make a landfall on Sunday. Splinter two is westbound. Both are making good about 10 knots.

The northbound cell only has a small chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, however, expected impacts are unchanged and it is still likely to bring numerous squalls to the northern Gulf with gusts between 45 and 55 knots in the deepwater lease areas from tonight through to Sunday. Heavy rain is expected to be the main impact from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

The westbound cell may have a higher chance to develop than its northbound twin. Ten knots is a little slow and if this spends time strengthening over the south western Gulf where the wind shear is not quite as high and there is some decent warm water, it could potentially become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days before steering currents carry it toward northern Mexico or possibly southern Texas by Monday or Tuesday. This disturbance will bring increased thunderstorm squalls to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico including the lease areas offshore Texas and western Louisiana by Monday.

A new distrurbance designated thirty four has appeared about five hundred miles north of the Amazon delta. This is not looking particularly well organised and is running against upper level shear, so unlikely to develop.

Tropical storm ERIN is now centred about a days and a half's steaming west of the Cape Verde Islands. This position is slightly north of the fertile convergence zone and the cyclone is nudging towards the sand belt. Cloud images are thinning and this indicates dry air is taking its toll on ERIN. If this continues, ERIN will not complete the Atlantic crossing and will remain only a fish storm.

Stand easy.